It is now becoming more apparent that the initial seed date of the COVID-19 virus, the date assumed by our national and world health organizations to be the date that patient zero contracted the disease, is a badly flawed assumption.
All other assumptions used to base predictions, which ultimately shut down a wide swath of our national economy, proceeded from which date was used as ground zero for the COVID-19 virus’ arrival here. That date was then used to project the spread of the disease and from that spread they extrapolated fatality predictions. For the want of a nail.
Based on these flawed assumption and extrapolations, I’m inclined to conclude that the seed date being used is some two months too late, and the actual, rather than projected, case fatality rate is more in line with that of a bad influenza season.
It’s more likely that the virus, which appeared in November in China, was also in the US sometime in November, given the fluidity and constant flurry of daily travel between the two countries.
Covid-19 likely first appeared on the West Coast sometime in November, perhaps a bit later in NYC.
That timeline would explain the off-the-charts record spikes in reported strange “flu” cases beginning in November and December, and spilling over into January and February. Those flu reports were likely undetected COVID cases.
There was no test available then, but many Americans presenting with odd flu-like symptoms tested negative for influenza A/B, according to reports.
I myself fell quite ill for almost the entire month of January, into early February, and I’ve heard from many others that they were similarly sick, but also tested negative for flu.
Since the symptoms for some strains of flu and COVID are almost identical, it is likely that doctors didn’t notice a marked difference unless patients presented with more advanced or severe symptoms resembling HAPE (high altitude pulmonary edema), altitude hypoxia or if they presented with ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome).
Doctors and ERs were swamped starting in November and December in California and Washington, and they were similarly swamped in NYC and New Jersey in January/February,
That means as a population, we have likely already attained a degree of herd immunity. My doctor and the other medical professionals in my “brain trust” have confirmed an unusual surge in complaints of flu-like symptoms; ones that lingered and just wouldn’t go away for more than a week, sometimes up to five weeks.
ERs in the NY/NJ metro area reported off-the-charts numbers of patients presenting with a flu-like illness and ARDS, even in the absence of radiology. When there was radiology the lungs appeared as if there were shards of glass inside both lungs. That’s not at all typical of pneumonia.
The virus likely came swiftly and swept through early, but we will need far more randomized antibody testing immediately to be sure.
Oddly, such tests are still not widely available.
Did someone or some cluster of authorities drop the ball on testing creation and distribution? Perhaps.
Would results showing widespread antibodies among the populace and make our health systems administrators and policy wonks look foolish? Is that why we have so few tests? Maybe.
Are there some people who wish to stretch this economic shutdown out as long as possible hoping to influence the elections in November? That might be the most likely part of all this.
The cluster of errors seems increasingly not an accident.
Now the bad news:
Our public health officials and our local and state knee-jerk politicians reacted to the problem solely based on flawed IMHE, NIH, CDC, and WHO assumptions, and on badly flawed death projections, all based on an incorrect seed date assumption.
Our state and local leaders then haplessly closed and crashed our economy in a rush to protect what they said were our vulnerable hospitals, assuming the worst projected case load.
Nevermind that our hospitals took an extra 500,000 cases of severe flu in 2017-2018 flu season and didn’t implode or shut down. We were sold the idea that a vast shutdown of our economy would kill a virus that was probably already dying. That turned out to be completely untrue.
The misdirection by health officials and state governments was likely to distract from the fact that our state and local medical facilities were badly unprepared for the worst, and our state and local stockpiles of necessary supplies, exhausted during past epidemics and pandemics, were never adequately replenished.
Was money misappropriated for something else? Pet projects, perhaps? There’s is some evidence that it was.
Either way, based on bad advice or bad intent, or a truly nefarious agenda, our state and local elected officials rushed in and threw the baby out with the bath water.
Flawed assumptions fed into flawed models, predicting that the worst was yet to come, creating a flawed response.
Now, in a complete turnaround, the prognosticators who pushing this narrative are indicating the worst was actually already here. They’re walking it back.
At the time of this publication, they are all backing off the original death claims and lowering case/mortality rates to below those of seasonal flu levels. That’s right. The CDC basically admitted that the numbers were so badly wrong that the new expected COVID death rate is now looking better than a severe flu season.
If we extrapolate any potentially lethal contagion from a seed date more recent to today, using exponential math and Monte Carlo simulation, which is what these models use to predict the probability of best and worst scenarios, we reach a much higher death range in the near or middle future, basing the growth on current deaths, assuming we are not yet at the apex.
But what if we are already at the apex? What if the number of deaths are being juiced up to meet some financial incentive or quota?
If patient ground zero was actually already here in November, if all those reports of “flu” in emergency rooms and doctors’ offices were COVID instead, then we are right in the middle of the apex and beginning of the flattening RIGHT NOW. Not a couple weeks or a couple months away.
That means COVID-19, while lethal, now may be no more lethal than a bad flu season, with a case fatality of around .1%, and may even be less lethal. A recent study in Germany puts case fatality at .37% and numbers are headed lower.
There’s also new and alarming evidence that the number of deaths being attributed to COVID-19 are far higher than the real number. Death certificates are reportedly being loosely labeled and grouped together with other deaths to reach higher numbers.
What could be the reason for that? Maybe hospitals get more federal funding for COVID cases. Or maybe more deaths validate the thesis and projections of the several competing national and global health organizations and their highly politicized administrators.
Or maybe, just maybe, those promoting the loose ICD labeling have an even more nefarious political agenda similar to those who have been repeatedly attempting to get rid of the current administration and president.
It all seems fishy.
To put it all into perspective, as of today, the influenza virus has hospitalized between 400,000-730,000 Americans this year, and has killed 24,000-63,000 people, according to the CDC. Not as bad as 2017-2018, when the flu killed as many as 95,000, but still, sadly, 7 children have died of flu last week. During that bad season, there were NO business closures due to flu. NO market crash, NO widespread unemployment, bankruptcies, panic, no infringement of rights, no curtailment of freedom.
Now, each day, models are being revised by the CDC and model makers. At first, they predicted 2.2 million deaths with no mitigation. That’s how they pitched the shutdown. Pure Shock and Awe.
Governments panicked and rushed to impose immediate closures of any business they deemed “non-essential”.
Next, coincidentally, once everyone was on board for the collapse of our great and prospering economy, they predicted a much softer number, between 100,000 and 250,000 deaths WITH mitigation. Then the number fell to ~81,000 COVID-19 deaths all season. That number has now been lowered to 60,000. And it may go lower, along with our livelihoods and bank accounts.
Millions are already unemployed. Millions more to come. Plus bankruptcies and business closures. Poverty, death, and all the illnesses and deaths common to an economic decline and it becomes increasingly clear we’ve all been suckered.
What’s more, even the initial treatment protocols may be wrong, according to some leading and highly respected doctors in the field. COVID-19 is being treated like a pneumonia, but doctors increasingly note that this is not looking like a pneumonia. It looks more like hypobaric hypoxia, such as might occur from altitude sickness. Patients are presenting with symptoms resembling high altitude pulmonary edema or HAPE, which rapidly deteriorates into ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome).
Patients are dying of hypoxia and organ failure, not pneumonia, which confirms that COVID attacks the hemes, preventing hemoglobin from delivering oxygen to the organs. The lung x-rays showing both lungs filled with “shards of glass” are further evidence that it’s not normal pneumonia. The shards are the result of iron ions that are a byproduct of the virus stripping the hemes of iron.
Many doctors are now saying it should be treated with Hydrochloroquine and Z-pack with zinc instead of just oxygen, anticipating ventilation. That makes sense, because HCQ seems to help the hemes bind with oxygen. Most hospitals, thankfully, are now adding that medication cocktail to the protocol. We are even learning that altitude sickness drugs like Acetazolamide, Nifedipine and Phosphodiesterase Inhibitors could be helpful if administered early.
Some doctors are also proning patients with some success, since putting the patients on their stomachs or sitting them more upright opens the lungs and takes pressure off the lungs and heart, which are already in distress.
Here’s the the actual science of the disease:
If hypoxia due to busted hemes is indeed the problem, then a ventilator could shred the lungs if administered at the wrong pressure or PEEP setting. And the hemoglobin wouldn’t likely get enough oxygen anyway because the alveoli membranes and the beta chain of the hemes would likely be badly compromised.
Why? Because the the virus attacks the 1-Beta Chain of Hemoglobin and Captures the Porphyrin, to Inhibit Human Heme Metabolism. The byproduct of busted hemes and alveoli is that iron ions in the blood from the busted hemes cross the semipermeable, now damaged and made permeable, alveoli barrier and those iron ions, which are toxic, load the lungs.
Think of it this way: Hemoglobin consists of hemes and globins. It is the iron-containing oxygen-transport metalloproteinin our red blood cells (erythrocytes). The hemes that make up hemoglobin are like semi trucks carrying a cargo payload of oxygen. They bind to oxygen taken in through the lungs that enters them via the alveoli, little air sacs inside the lung that help transfer oxygen to the hemoglobin. The COVID virus and malaria act similarly, in that they sneak up on the hemes and uncouple the trailer full of oxygen, meaning the hemes unknowingly bobtail all the way to the organs with no payload of oxygen to deliver. Virus (or malaria) have hijacked the load. That’s precisely why patients are presenting with hypoxia and ARDS.
Although there is some risk of heart complications with patients having pre-existing conditions and a BMI over 3, doctors are saying they should probably still receive the Hydrochloroquine cocktail and oxygen.
They’re saying those patients should be closely monitored for EKG irregularities, because Hydrochloroquine can sometimes cause arrhythmia or heart distress.
If they can’t breathe, some doctors are saying they should be ventilated, but at very low PEEP (low pressure) and very high oxygen, or their lungs could be shredded. Alternatively, other ways to oxygenate the patients’ blood should likely be explored. Hyperbaric treatment has been mentioned, but we don’t have many hyperbaric chambers. A heart-lung machine, which oxygenates the blood, or an oscillator instead of a ventilator, might be a better protocol. Even transfusions of oxygenated blood might help. Alternatively, CPAP and BIPAP machines are being hacked and pressed into service as a less invasive way to get oxygen into the patient rather than intubated ventilation.
Some docs are being very creative with new protocols and are treating patients very successfully. Early diagnosis and treatment are key to success.
Most docs and nurses are also now on Hydrochloroquine prophylactically, which is likely why we aren’t losing doctors and nurses like flies as we were early on.
If this is all or mostly true, and we can see that it probably is, then this reveals several crucial timeline mistakes made by our deep-pharma-entrenched national health bureaucrats (Fauci, et al) that have spurred shutdowns and crashed the economy for a storm that never appeared.
Now, one of the virus tracking websites has already begun scrubbing key numbers to cover this up. That’s another way we know we are onto something here.
This is an epic fail based on flawed data, flawed assumptions based on that data and bad advice based on those flawed assumptions. And now we will all suffer because of it.
Sadly, the worst of all sufferers will be those most impoverished and in need. Our bloated national health system bureaucracy is to blame
for much of this and it needs gutting…fast. We give them one job. One responsibility. And they have failed us and our national leadership badly by badly miscalculating the data and then basing models off it and using those models to advise gullible politicians to shut the economy down.
And here we are. $6 trillion and counting in the hole, with over 25 million unemployed and no evidence that the shutdown contributed in any positive way to the decline of anything but the economy and people’s livelihoods. The virus, it appears, was already declining and would have done so with it without a global shutdown beyond a couple weeks.