The Existing Home Sales were Slower during 2018 than 2017. Has it been slower during 2019 due to a Shutdown of Loan Approvals?
The Government Shutdown curtailed the release of the new home sales data and the new home construction data. It also appears to have slowed the loan approval process during December of 2018 and January 2019 for both existing home sales and new home sales.. This column produced a February Real Estate Forecast article that projected month to month improvement in the existing home inventory level, a potential record February Average Sales Price, and a surge in the units sold from last year’s 319,000 units sold, non-seasonally adjusted. What was recorded and what was reported by the REALTORS?
Existing Home Inventory continues to grow year over year. There were 1.440 million single family homes for sale and 192,000 condominiums for sale for a total of 1.632 million units for sale. This is up from last year’s 1.580 million units during February 2018. Inventory is king. We are still lower than we were during December of 2016. We were oversupplied during the recession. Inventory started recovering December 2015.
The Number of Units Sold came in within expectations.
It was projected that we would see 312,000 to 319,000 units sold this
February based on the normal growth seen between January and February
and Between February and February. The 312,000 units was on the low end
The “annualized” sales show the same sales pattern. Last
year the annualized rate for the West Region wales 1.110 million units
compared to 1.03 million units this year. This is a drop of 80,000
single family homes. A similar drop was seen in the annualized rate of
sales for condominiums in the West region. There was a drop from 150,000
units to 130,000 units.
The West Region is pulling down the sales level.
Last February there were 63,000 units for sold in the West. This year
only 58,000 units were sold. The Northeast, Midwest, and South had the
same level of sales as last February. They were identical. The Northeast
region saw a boost from 570,000 annualized sales to 580,000 annualized
sales. The monthly sales were identical to the February levels recorded
last year in the other three regions.
The Average Sales Price set a new record.
The overall average sales price came in at $288,200, up from last
year’s February record of $280,600. Both the average sales price for
condominiums and single family homes rose from February 2018 to February
Current Year Sold are better than February 1999-2001 and better than February 2008-2015.
Two data points do not create a trend. The 597,000 units sold are
slightly lower than what were sold during 2016, 2017. and 2018 when we
had 617,000 units, 634,000 units, and 632,000 units sold, respectively.
Right now the data is too tightly packed to detect a trend.
The Rolling Year Sales came in at 5.307 Million units.
This level of sales during the past 12 months is better than where we
were during 2016. We are doing better than 2001 and are almost at 2002
levels. There are people who pine for the good old days of 2004-2006.
This is when the market “overheated.” We might be able to peg 5.5
million units by the end of the year.
came within expectations. The average sales price set a record for
February. The units sold during the month cam in within expectations,
even if it was on the low side of expectations. Inventory for sale grew.
This and the current year data indicate that things are okay. The
government shutdown may have slowed the start of this 12 lap race.
It’s the Economy.
Categories: It's the Economy