The housing data from the first month or two often set the pace fr the rest of the year. This year, we missed the starting gun because of the Government Shutdown. It is possible that we could receive a larger than expected bounce in the new construction data, the new home sales data, and the existing home sale data. This is a twelve lap race and we are in lap two.
What the recent report of declining household wealth a hiccup or a heart attack? Was it something different? Whereas some economists and pundits are projecting “non-existent” annualized GDP growth of 0.5% for first quarter, it is more likely that we will see between 1.5% and 2.5% annualized growth, and possibly even better han the 2.6% reported during fourth quarter of 2018.
The January New Home Sales average eased back from the January record set last year. This is because more homes sold in the $200,000 to $299,999 price range, and fewer homes sold in the $400,000 to $499,999 and $500,000 to $749,999 price range this January than last January. This pulled the average sales price down.
We had a record Retail Sales month during January after a record retail sales year during 2018. The Government Shutdown appears to have impacted three retail sectors.
The February Jobs Report – A Tale of Two Data Sets (Part 2) The ADP report was released last week to faint praise. The “jobs” number came in at 183,000. Commentators made off-hand remarks that this was down from the January level of 300,000 workers. We hadn’t seen […]
The February Jobs Report – A Tale of Two Data Sets The ADP report was released earlier this week to faint praise. The ADP Payroll report is often seen as an indicator as to what to expect from monthly government jobs report. The data is from different data […]
February ADP Reported Growth in All Sectors. The 2018 data was revised higher, so was January, “reducing” February Data The ADP Payroll report is released the Wednesday prior to the monthly government Employment Situation Report. The headline ADP number is the seasonally adjusted payroll gains or losses. The […]
The easy headline is that December Sales Dropped From Last December. The rest of the story is this was the Best Sales Year Since 2007 The rest of the story is this was the Best Sales Year Since 2007 If you listen to other commentators you may hear […]
The Economy has been growing so fast that growth during 2017 and 2018 were pushed back to 2016 and before. Seasonal factors and revisions matter. The Monthly Employment Situation Report, or Jobs Report, is created using two data sets: The Current Employment Statistics (CES) worker data and the […]
What About the Revisions to the data? The ADP Payroll report is released the Wednesday prior to the monthly government Employment Situation Report. The headline ADP number is the seasonally adjusted payroll gains or losses. The headline Employment Situation number is the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number. The NFP […]