Retail sales set a record during 2018. We have seen record non-seasonally adjusted retail sales during January and February of 2019. March is normally a strong month for retail sales due to the Spring Housing Market. Expect non-seaosnlly adjusted retail sales growth in all sectors month to month and march to March. The seasonally adjusted sales may have one of two slower sales levels March to March.
The March Jobs number rebounded from the “weak” headline number last month. Last month the Current Employment Statistics (CES) worker data was “weak” and the Current Population Survey (CPS) jobs data was strong. This month the CES data was strong and the CPS data was weak. Long term we are seeing full-time jobs replace part-time jobs.
Last month the ADP report came in much stronger than the monthly employment situation report from the government. This month the January and February ADP data was revised lower. This month instead of expansion in Manufacturing, Construction and Financial Services we saw the ADP data contract.
The ADP payroll report gives us the first glimpse as to what may be reported for the private sector growth when the government Employment Statistics Report is released. Expect all sector to grow month to month and March to March. Expect a number over 215,000 and under 252,000 before revisions to the February data are made.
The February Retail Report was finally released. The Government Shutdown Shutdown the Release of Some Economic Data. The monthly retail report has not been received very well. December we had a record December and a Record year, non-seasonally adjusted, and it was reported as lackluster. It was so […]
The February New Home Sales data came in better than February 2018 for units sold, average sales price, and inventory. The release of the February New Home Sales Report was delayed by the Government Shutdown.
The final GDP growth for 2018 remained at 2.9% even after the quarter to quarter growth rate was reduced from 2.6% to 2.2% and the same quarter growth rate was revised from 3.1% to 3.0%. There were downward revisions to all four main categories for the annualized, quarter to quarter growth, and three of the four categories for the same quarter GDP calculations.