Retail sales set a record during 2018. We have seen record non-seasonally adjusted retail sales during January and February of 2019. March is normally a strong month for retail sales due to the Spring Housing Market. Expect non-seaosnlly adjusted retail sales growth in all sectors month to month and march to March. The seasonally adjusted sales may have one of two slower sales levels March to March.
The March Jobs number rebounded from the “weak” headline number last month. Last month the Current Employment Statistics (CES) worker data was “weak” and the Current Population Survey (CPS) jobs data was strong. This month the CES data was strong and the CPS data was weak. Long term we are seeing full-time jobs replace part-time jobs.
Last month the ADP report came in much stronger than the monthly employment situation report from the government. This month the January and February ADP data was revised lower. This month instead of expansion in Manufacturing, Construction and Financial Services we saw the ADP data contract.
The February New Home Sales data came in better than February 2018 for units sold, average sales price, and inventory. The release of the February New Home Sales Report was delayed by the Government Shutdown.
The final GDP growth for 2018 remained at 2.9% even after the quarter to quarter growth rate was reduced from 2.6% to 2.2% and the same quarter growth rate was revised from 3.1% to 3.0%. There were downward revisions to all four main categories for the annualized, quarter to quarter growth, and three of the four categories for the same quarter GDP calculations.
We had our Best New Construction Year since 2007 during 2018. Was new construction slowed down this year, so far, by the Government Shutdown? The release economic data regarding new construction and new home sales was delayed due to the the Government Shutdown. We received the January New […]
The Government Shutdown may have slowed the loan approval process, and therefor the home sales process. February to February. Inventory improved, as did the average sales price. Total units sold were held back by a drop in sales in the West Region from last February.
The housing data from the first month or two often set the pace fr the rest of the year. This year, we missed the starting gun because of the Government Shutdown. It is possible that we could receive a larger than expected bounce in the new construction data, the new home sales data, and the existing home sale data. This is a twelve lap race and we are in lap two.
What the recent report of declining household wealth a hiccup or a heart attack? Was it something different? Whereas some economists and pundits are projecting “non-existent” annualized GDP growth of 0.5% for first quarter, it is more likely that we will see between 1.5% and 2.5% annualized growth, and possibly even better han the 2.6% reported during fourth quarter of 2018.
The January New Home Sales average eased back from the January record set last year. This is because more homes sold in the $200,000 to $299,999 price range, and fewer homes sold in the $400,000 to $499,999 and $500,000 to $749,999 price range this January than last January. This pulled the average sales price down.
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