Retail sales set a record during 2018. We have seen record non-seasonally adjusted retail sales during January and February of 2019. March is normally a strong month for retail sales due to the Spring Housing Market. Expect non-seaosnlly adjusted retail sales growth in all sectors month to month and march to March. The seasonally adjusted sales may have one of two slower sales levels March to March.
The ADP payroll report gives us the first glimpse as to what may be reported for the private sector growth when the government Employment Statistics Report is released. Expect all sector to grow month to month and March to March. Expect a number over 215,000 and under 252,000 before revisions to the February data are made.
The February Retail Report was finally released. The Government Shutdown Shutdown the Release of Some Economic Data. The monthly retail report has not been received very well. December we had a record December and a Record year, non-seasonally adjusted, and it was reported as lackluster. It was so […]
The housing data from the first month or two often set the pace fr the rest of the year. This year, we missed the starting gun because of the Government Shutdown. It is possible that we could receive a larger than expected bounce in the new construction data, the new home sales data, and the existing home sale data. This is a twelve lap race and we are in lap two.
The Economy has been growing so fast that growth during 2017 and 2018 were pushed back to 2016 and before. Seasonal factors and revisions matter. The Monthly Employment Situation Report, or Jobs Report, is created using two data sets: The Current Employment Statistics (CES) worker data and the […]
What About the Revisions to the data? The ADP Payroll report is released the Wednesday prior to the monthly government Employment Situation Report. The headline ADP number is the seasonally adjusted payroll gains or losses. The headline Employment Situation number is the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number. The NFP […]
The Jobs Data was Better than the Jobs Report The monthly Jobs Report is often a “market mover.” What is happening with the seasonally adjusted “jobs” number? What is happening with wages? What is happening with unemployment? What is happening with participation? The problem that most people have […]