What About the Revisions to the data? The ADP Payroll report is released the Wednesday prior to the monthly government Employment Situation Report. The headline ADP number is the seasonally adjusted payroll gains or losses. The headline Employment Situation number is the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number. The NFP […]
Jon Barsanti Jr
Demystifying the Data that is released every day, week and month.
Fourth Quarter GDP was not impacted by the Government Shutdown There were a number of pundits who thought that he fourth quarter GDP might be negatively impacted by the Government Shutdown. This column produced one article “Government Shutdown May Not Show Up in Government Data,” and a second […]
This column published an article “December Real Estate Surprise Forecasted” projecting the potential outcomes of the December New Construction data, the December New Home Sales Data, and the December Existing Home Sales data. December Starts have been sluggish for years – they may surprise to the upside.There is […]
January Data was expected to surprise some analysts – And it did, as inventory improved, a new January average sales price was set, and units sold slowed There are three main components that need to be observed in the Existing Home Sales Report: Inventory, Units sold, and Average […]
Normally the new home construction for a given month is released first, followed by the existing home sales data and then the new home sales data. This week we receive the January existing home sales data, the December new construction data, and the December New Home Sales data. This column has already published a forecast article for the December data. This article only examines the existing home sales data.
Record Retail Year – December Recorded Gains Reported as A Drop from November We were on track for our best retail sales year prior to the Government Shutdown. Preliminary data was that Visa/Mastercard saw a spike in purchases and possibly the best December Retail Sales Month ever. The […]
Record Retail Year – December Recorded Gains Reported as A Drop from November We were on track for our best retail sales year prior to the Government Shutdown. Preliminary data was that Visa/Mastercard saw a spike in purchases and possibly the best December Retail Sales Month ever. Month […]
We are Mortgaging Our Future, Again The Federal Debt Clock eclipsed $22 trillion dollars during the middle of last night. This author has written a number of articles on the Federal Debt. “Federal Debt: Mortgaging Our Future – $117 Billion Monthly Mortgage Payment” (11/25/2014) “Inaction of the Debt […]
This week we received the December JOLTS Report. Last week we received the January Jobs Report. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Report lags the Jobs Report by one week. This is a different employment survey from the Current Population Survey (CPS) Jobs and unemployment survey. […]
January Record Worker Levels for those over 55 Years of Old The January Jobs Report caught some people off-guard. The “experts” were anticipating a slower growth month, possibly slowing to 165,000 to 175,000 workers being added to the economy. Some prognosticators thought that he seasonally adjusted “non-farm payroll” […]