Data was expected to surprise some analysts – And it did, as inventory
improved, a new January average sales price was set, and units sold
are three main components that need to be observed in the Existing Home
Sales Report: Inventory, Units sold, and Average sales Price. It was
projected in the January Existing Forecast Article that inventory should
rise month to month and January to January to the Expect 1.58 million
to 1.63 million unit Level. It was expected the higher inventory would
push the units sold to between 313,000 and 324,000 units. A new January
Record Average sales price was expected between $289,9000 and $294,900
with the outside chance of $296,000. What was reported by the REALTORS this January?
Inventory rebounded to 1.591 million units.
This was within the expected range. It is still significantly lower
than the January 2016 level of 1.65 million units and much lower than
the 1.79 million we had during December 2015. Inventory rose 2.65%
month to month and 4.67% January to January.
Units Sold disappointed, and was anticipated.
The combination permutation table that was released with the forecast
article had the possibility of 260,000 to 278,000 units sold, based on
the normal month to month changes in units sold. It’s cold, snowy, and
football filled television during January. There were 285,000 units
sold this January. This was still a better January than January 2008
through January 2015.
A New January Average Sales Price Record was set at $286,600.
The average single family home sales price was $287,600 and the average
condominium sold for $280,900. There has been some questions regarding
the sustainability of 3.00% and higher appreciation and the effects on
consumer prices (CPI.) The “inflation” this January was 1.49%.
The rolling year sales is coasting lower from year to year. This
column uses the current year trend line and the rolling year data as a
way to project future growth and explain the current data. The current
year data is just one point right now. A line is made with two points,
and the earliest that a trend can be determined is three points. The
only thing that can be used with any clarity during the first few month
of the year in the rolling year sales data. The rolling year data is
down roughly 260,000 units from last January. This means that during the
next year we could be down to the level of 4.5 million units. The
“headline” value from the REALTORS was 4.370 million. This seems
The existing home sales data has a multiplying effect.
Home purchasers normally need lender, appraisers, movers and REALTORS.
Home buyers need new furniture, new appliance, new home and garden
material. The same can be said of home sellers.
The data was a little disappointing regarding units sold. Everything was
within the range of expectations. Managed expectations are a necessity
in real estate.Check with your local REALTORS regarding what is
happening in your community, school district, neighborhood or
condominium association, and your price range. The things that matter
are condition, location, price and motivation of the buyer and the
It’s the economy.
Categories: It's the Economy