It's the Economy

November New Home Sales: Comment Worthy

Still on Track for Best Year since 2007

The data that was released today was the November New Home Sales data. We should have received the December New Home Sales Data by now. The Government Shutdown delayed the release of both reports. The November Real Estate forecast article projected a rise in inventory, sales between 45,000 units and 52,000 units, likely to be 48,000, an potentially a new November Average Sales Price record. Two out of three isn’t bad.

The November New Home Sales Report was released more than a month after it was supposed to be released.  The Census Bureau releases the new home construction and new home sales data.

New Home Sales came in on pace for their best year since 2007. The number of units sold came in at 48,000 units.  So far we have seen 584,000 units sold during the first 11 months. If we continue to sell at the rate we have all year then we could hit 637,000 units by the end of December. The Rolling year sales, those units sold during the past 12 months is 629,000 units. The Current Year data is ahead of the rolling year data so the market is expanding.

The average sales price dropped to $362,400. This was not entirely unexpected. There has been considerable discussion that there is a lack of existing home inventory, that an average sales price of $300,000 is  not affordable for an existing home, and that $400,000 for a new home was a bit much.  The average sales price dropped from $395,500 during October.

The November Inventory level edged higher to 336,000. Last year we stood at 292,000. We normally have 300,000 to 400,000 units available for purchase. The 336,000 unit level leaves us below the level seen during November 2008, as the economy was cooling.  This level of inventory is comparable to November 1994, November 1996, and November 2002.

Better late than never. The units sold this month was expected. The inventory level edged higher from the October level and it the best in almost a decade. The average sales price dropped this month. If lower prices become the norm then we could see existing home buyers gravitate to new homes. All real estate is local.  New home sales prices depend on country, community, school district, subdivision, style, size, amenities, and land prices. Check with a Realtor or a builder to find out what is happening in your market.

It’s the economy.

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