It appears that Troy Balderson, the Republican Congressional candidate, won by less than 1% (though that figure could be argued) in the special election in Ohio’s 12th District. On the surface it is safe to say that in a District Trump carried by 11 points, winning by less than 1 does not bode well for Republicans in November.
Now here’s the real deal. First Balderson is not the best candidate. I would go so far as to say he’s lousy. It has been said that he verbally trashed his opponent’s County which had he not, he had at least a shot at winning. It has also come to light that Balderson campaigned on repealing Medicaid expansion which is apparently covering a number of people in the District.
According to a very reliable source in that area, Balderson and the Republicans were outspent 2 to 1. The Democrats had an outstanding ground game and were able to get 90% of their voters to the polls. Republicans by contrast had a lower turnout than in 2016.
It should also be noted that Balderson was trailing in the Polls as of last week. Then something happened, the President turned up at rally for the Candidate. Trump’s influence must be taken into account, in both directions. His appearance also apparently energized the Democrat base. Balderson was also helped by Governor John Kasich who got out the suburban Women’s vote.
So what can we take away from this?
A special election occurred in the middle of summer when many families are still on vacation. Hence, low turnout. Republicans were outspent 2 to 1. Democrats got 90% of their voters to the polls. Republicans had a poor showing comparatively, fewer voters showed up than during the Presidential Election and much of the rural vote stayed home. Yet despite all this the Republican still won. Now then, Who should be worried about November?